A sea of change is coming. The bubble of college-aged kids is passing because of demographics, and universities are beginning to understand that soon there will be fewer students to fill classroom seats. The good news for the students is that it will soon be less difficult to get accepted to the school of their choice. Clearly, this story has local implications for your nearby university or college.
The New York Times reports:
High school seniors nationwide are anxiously awaiting the verdicts from the colleges of their choice later this month. But though it may not be of much solace to them, in just a few years the admissions frenzy is likely to ease. It's simply a matter of demographics.
Projections show that by next year or the year after, the annual number of high school graduates in the United States will peak at about 2.9 million after a 15-year climb. The number is then expected to decline until about 2015. Most universities expect this to translate into fewer applications and less selectivity, with most students probably finding it easier to get into college.
"For the high school graduate, this becomes a buyers' market," said Daniel M. Fogel, president of the University of Vermont.
that with the changes will come a big shift in demographics:
After years of being overwhelmed with applicants, higher education institutions will over the next decade recruit from a pool of public high school graduates that will experience:
- A projected national decline of roughly 10 percent or more in non-Hispanic white students, the population that traditionally is most likely to attend four-year colleges.
- A double-digit rise in the proportion of minority students -- especially Hispanics -- who traditionally are less likely to attend college and to obtain loans to fund education.
Despite those obstacles, minority enrollment at undergraduate schools is expected to rise steadily, from 30 percent in 2004 to about 37 percent in 2015, some analysts project.
Schools hope that the best universities will see tons of applications. But the "golden age" may have passed. The Times story says:
Still, some admissions deans and independent consultants say the struggle to win entry to the most prestigious universities is likely to continue.
"The ones that have the strongest brand identification are still going to be awash in applications, but 99 percent of us are going to see declines," said Robert J. Massa, vice president for enrollment at Dickinson College.
But other admissions officials have a different view. Lee A. Coffin, dean of undergraduate admissions at Tufts University, thinks top students might well find less competition. "We could see something resembling the admissions environment of the early 1990s, in which the most talented students might have an easier time," he said.
