
A former newspaper editor named Mark Twain once famously observed that
he wasn't worried about his ability to find work because, "I figure
even the people in the north of hell will be curious about what the
people in South Hell have been up to."
On that essential truth
rests all my thinking about "the future of news." Tomorrow's appetite
for real news and information will not be less than today's. People's
curiosity will not diminish. Those who have reliable and timely
information will continue to be advantaged over those who do not. And
that means people who can supply such information will remain essential.
Yes,
information is becoming freely and ubiquitously available, delivered
around the clock and in many formats. Yet people don’t need more data
in their lives. A recent book called "Data Smog" makes the point that
too much information -- or bad-quality information -- can, like
polluted air, become toxic. People will always need help sorting,
verifying and organizing the bewildering range of data flowing all
around them, and so organizations that can do that will, like Mark
Twain, always have job security.
Fortunately, those are skills
that newspapers and newspaper journalists have honed carefully over
many decades. While we've often been hidebound and stubborn about our
delivery mechanisms and our relationship with readers, our much-vaunted
"core competencies" are right at the center of filling this need.
The 21st century news company will have to be able to make a pitch to audiences something like this:
Yes,
we know you're awash in data and information. You wake up to NPR,
listen to talk radio on your commute, surf the Web when you should be
working and see CNN in the lunchroom. You've been titillated by blogs
and e-mail alerts all day; friends and coworkers have sent you IMs
about the latest item to tickle their fancy. You've got books and
podcasts queued up on your iPod. So what can we possibly do for you?
How
about this: I'll ask a hundred of the smartest people I know to spend
all day sorting through that information, figuring out which of the
blog items you saw is accurate enough to deserve your attention,
comparing what the Secretary of Defense said on TV with what he told
you last month, figuring what's likely to happen tomorrow on that big
story that dominated CNN. They'll organize it in concise and manageable
dimensions, collect it all in one spot and deliver it to your doorstep
first thing in the morning to help you organize and orient your coming
day.
In the meantime, we'll use all those other channels as well
to keep you posted on what we learn about the latest developments, and
to deliver the information -- chiefly local -- that we alone have
bothered to check out and discover.
In short, we'll promise to
make their lives better -- to give them advantages over less well
informed or less carefully briefed colleagues and competitors. We can
help them narrow their choices for entertainment or understand why the
local coach was so stupid. We can share an emotional connection with
neighbors, or expose a corrupt contract at city hall.
That's a
hell of a "value proposition," a promise to deliver real benefits in
exchange for their most precious possession: a piece of their busy day.
In the coming "attention economy," where the only thing in short supply
is time, that's the only way to be valuable to people.
I haven't
spent time talking about the economics of the industry here partly
because it's not my expertise, but also because I have considerable
confidence in the resilience of our basic business model: selling
audiences to advertisers. If we assemble quality audiences and learn to
deliver them (or partner with people who can), there will be willing
buyers for that service. I can't promise a smooth transition from our
quasi-monopoly position to this new reality, but my faith in it is
undiminished. (Basically, I trust that smart colleagues on the other
side of the house will work as hard and intelligently on the business
model as we are on content.)
In the short run, I can help secure
this future for our industry by helping people get over their fear and
frustration and embrace the opportunities. Al Gore says the biggest
challenge in getting people to deal with climate change is that they
tend to go straight from denial to despair when they contemplate the
future. That seems true for people in the news business, as well.
Fortunately, that cloud of gloom is easily dissipated by clear thinking
and refocused perspective.
In my view, the long term is less
frightening and less perplexing than this interim, transition period in
which we must both continue our traditional operations while embracing
change. But perhaps our best service in this will be to help our
colleagues recognize that these aren’t really two separate tasks so
much as a migration from one form of storytelling to another -- a
relocation, perhaps, from the north of hell to the south, or even to
happier climes.